Hedge Fund Financial Model Predicts AAPL to Fall 80% to $45

"BAM Investor's advanced behavioral analysis financial model predicts Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock price to fall to $42 per share as soon as Fall 2010"

That is a *remarkable* prediction - not only for its scope (can any of us really imagine a crash so bad that would cause Apple's stock to fall from its present $271/share all the way down to the predicted $45?) but for its balls if not stupidity.

We'll wait for the fall to see...

Actually a publicity garnering press release but not about Apple

Just read through this. It was nothing more than a press release written as a regular article with the intent to 'hook' people into their 'system'. They are not a licensed broker but sell (or try to sell) advice to hedge funds.

The article is actually about their model of human behavior which is used to predict. Several warning signs (beyond the insane prediction itself) pop up.
- their statement that stock prices are not based on future earning expectations but instead on 'sort-covering' and 'extreme in investor optimism'
- Apple is a cult (bubble) stock
- is a 'stock that will trap investors blinded by greed.'
- 'company on a roll' and endless trajectory

And then they use companies that have had stock crashes that they predicted (a few of them I could have also predicted) which are not related to the technology sector nor are at all like Apple as a company (read 'innovation' and 'drive').

If you continue to read, it finally says 'the 45 dollar target is also most likely a reflection of the massive crash we're expecting in the stock market as a whole'.

In other words the press release guised as an article is predicting a major market crash itself, of which Apple is just one stock. They used Apple as an example to guarantee that they will get hits on the article which seems to be successful. Most of the things that I read are treating this as a real story versus a publicity driving news release.

And the final negative is - they twitter their predictions. Now I really take them seriously and hopefully any fund that I am invested in has paid for their well thought out services (and if they are I am dumping that fund fast!).

And, oddly enough, they

And, oddly enough, they tweeted this to me:
"We disagree Shawn. If this stock is as healthy as most believe, there's no reason for it to ever move down to the 45 level." BAMinvestor
--
Shawn King
Host/Executive Producer
Your Mac Life
http://www.yourmaclifeshow.com

If the spill in the Gulf

If the spill in the Gulf isn't contained soon and the oil and methane spread to other ocean areas beyond the Gulf of Mexico, more than just Apple's stock and the market will be screwed, EVERYTHING will be.

--pattii
• ~ ~ ~ • I left my heart in San Francisco.....among the Macs & Margaritas • ~ ~ ~ •

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